Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ALVARO-24 in Madagascar from 31 Dec 2023 12:00 UTC to 02 Jan 2024 16:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ALVARO-24

in Madagascar

02 Jan 2024 16 UTC

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ALVARO-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	127 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (01 Jan 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 01 Jan 2024 16:00 - 01 Jan 2024 22:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	74 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	127 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

74 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.1 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	31 Dec 2023 10:00	63	No people	No people
2	31 Dec 2023 16:00	74	No people	No people
3	31 Dec 2023 22:00	84	No people	No people
4	01 Jan 2024 04:00	84	280 thousand	No people	Madagascar
5	01 Jan 2024 10:00	106	7.4 million	No people	Madagascar
6	01 Jan 2024 16:00	127	970 thousand	No people	Madagascar
7	01 Jan 2024 22:00	106	6.1 million	No people	Madagascar
8	02 Jan 2024 04:00	84	8.9 million	No people	Madagascar
9	02 Jan 2024 10:00	74	3.6 million	No people	Madagascar
10	02 Jan 2024 16:00	74	2.1 million	No people	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	31 Dec 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-20.1, 38.3
2	31 Dec 2023 16:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-20.4, 39
3	31 Dec 2023 22:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-20.7, 39.9
4	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	280000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-20.9, 40.6
5	01 Jan 2024 10:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	1.7 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-21.3, 41.6
6	01 Jan 2024 16:00	Category 1	127	no people	580000 people	Severe Tropical Storm	111	-21.4, 42.7
7	01 Jan 2024 22:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	2.6 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-21.3, 43.9	Madagascar
8	02 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	1.6 million people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-21.4, 45	Madagascar
9	02 Jan 2024 10:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-21.5, 45.9	Madagascar
10	02 Jan 2024 16:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-21.6, 46.6	Madagascar
10	03 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-22.1, 49.1
10	03 Jan 2024 16:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-23.2, 51.1
10	04 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-24.9, 53.1
10	04 Jan 2024 16:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-26.7, 55.3
10	05 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-28.5, 58.2
10	05 Jan 2024 16:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-29.1, 59.9

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Madagascar	2.1 million people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	280000 people
Toliara	Madagascar	1.8 million people
Mahajanga	Madagascar	<1000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Ankazoabo	Toliara	Madagascar	City	26000 people
Manja	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-
Ambohibe	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-
Morombe	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-
Tulear	Toliara	Madagascar	Major city	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Beroroha	WBO	250	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3100
Malaimbandy	WML	182	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3900
Mandabe	WMD	290	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3500
Ambatolahy	AHY	unknown				0
Ankazoabo	WAK	430	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3500
Manja	MJA	240	Civ.	Unpaved	No	5200
Morondava	MOQ	7	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Tanandava	TDV	27	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4500
Belo Sur Tsiribihina	BMD	47	Civ.	Paved	No	4400
Morombe	MXM	5	Civ.	Paved	No	4200
Toliara	TLE	8	Civ.	Paved	No	6500

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Morondava	MGMOQ	Madagascar
Belo Sur Mer		Madagascar
Antongo		Madagascar
Morombe	MGMXM	Madagascar
Manombo	MGMOB	Madagascar
Toliara	MGTLE	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Manometimay, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 01 Jan 2024 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (140 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 02 Jan 2024 04:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Ankevo	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Jan 2024 22:00	Ankoba	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Jan 2024 22:00	Antseranandaka	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Jan 2024 22:00	Mite	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Jan 2024 22:00	Manahy	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Jan 2024 22:00	Ankelifolo	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Jan 2024 21:00	Ambohibe	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Jan 2024 21:00	Andranopasy	Madagascar	0.5
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Jan 2024 00:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Jan 2024 00:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Jan 2024 20:00	Bekoropoka	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.4
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.4
	02 Jan 2024 00:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Onara	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 21:00	Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 21:00	Marofihitsa	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 21:00	Ambararata	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 02:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 02:00	Amado	Mozambique	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.3
	02 Jan 2024 00:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.3
	02 Jan 2024 00:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.3
	02 Jan 2024 00:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Jan 2024 05:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Jan 2024 05:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Jan 2024 05:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 01:00	Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.2
	03 Jan 2024 02:00	Pakapakaina	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Jan 2024 02:00	Anakitaina	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Jan 2024 02:00	Marohita	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Jan 2024 02:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Jan 2024 02:00	Mananjary	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Ocone	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Machesse	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 19:00	Anadramy Nord	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 19:00	Mangolovolo	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 22:00	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 22:00	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 22:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Nhangau	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Chofandicho	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Panaca	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Tama	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Jonja	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Bingue	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Rupia	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Damiao	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Chamba	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Beira	Mozambique	0.2
	03 Jan 2024 01:00	Itenina	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Magromane	Mozambique	0.2
	03 Jan 2024 00:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Vila do Chinde	Mozambique	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 07:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2024 00:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2024 00:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2024 00:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2024 00:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2024 00:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2024 00:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2024 00:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2024 00:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2024 00:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	02 Jan 2024 00:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 18:00	Morombe	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 09:00	Nova Sofala	Mozambique	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 09:00	Manica	Mozambique	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 06:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Tomodo	Mozambique	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 06:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 06:00	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 00:00	Manakara	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Mutiba	Mozambique	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Caliua	Mozambique	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Raraga	Mozambique	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 23:00	Metapa	Mozambique	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 05:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 05:00	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 05:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 05:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 05:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 05:00	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 05:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 05:00	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 05:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 00:00	Savana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 00:00	Mangatsiatra	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 00:00	Tataho	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 03:00	Mahela	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 03:00	Andranomahitsy	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.